OFFENSE RATIO WEB SITE 
Historic and Current Stats
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Graphical Presentation of Batting Statistics for Major League Baseball
Players and Teams Historic and Current Stats |
P. Adel, April, 1999
As noted in the discussion on the relationship of Offense Ratio to Runs Per Game, correlations are derived for two separate periods, 1920 to 1939, and 1950 to the present (1997). This results in the two different boxes relating OR to RPG that appear in the upper right hand corner of the Offense Ratio Diagrams.
The years 1940 to 1949 are excluded from the the regression analysis because of the remarkable change in the game of baseball that occurred in that decade. This change is clearly illustrated in the Chronology charts, Chron NL ,and Chron AL (click images for full size).
In 1940, league batting averages fell below 0.273 in the American League and below 0.266 in the National League, dropping below the low point (1933) of the 20 previous seasons, 1920 to 1939. League batting averages have been above this level in only one full season in each league since 1940. The batting average dividing lines are shown on the Chronology charts with a vertical line.
At the same time, the power statistics
went through a change that has fundamentally changed the game. In
a ten year span, both leagues reached post 1939 lows (except for 1967,
68, and 72 ) in power average [(TB + BB)/H], slugging average, and Offense
Ratio during the early 40's, and then went on to reach all time highs by
1950. Connect the dots on the Chronology charts in each league from
1940 to 1950 to see this evolution. With the exception of one year
in each league, the power average has not fallen below 1.79 in either league
since 1946. This dividing line appears as a horizontal line on the
Chronology charts.
The rise in power statistics since the 1940's has been accompanied by a steep increase in strikeouts and home runs per game. The strikeout rate has increased from approximately 3.5 per game in 1945 to approximately 6.5 per game in 1998, while the home run rate doubled from 1945 to 1955. The current home run rates are approximately 1.1 per game in the American League and 1.0 in the National League (10% designated hitter differential) compared to approximately 0.4 per game in both leagues in 1945.
This reflects the emergence of the modern power hitter, whose run production from the long ball justifies a lower batting average and higher strikeout rate. As an example, consider Willie Stargell's career strikeout ratio (strikeouts to outs, or SO/(AB - H)) of 34.0%, more than twice the major league average from 1920 to 1997, versus his HOF-worthy Offense Ratio of 0.9 bases per out. The strikeout ratio crown, by the way, goes to Bo Jackson, with 47% of all outs coming on strikeouts. For players that retired between 1921 and 1949 with 2000 or more carer at bats, the highest strikeout ratio belongs to Vince DiMaggio, at 29%. Babe Ruth's career average was 24%.
Finally, the evolution of the power ball game can be illustrated dramatically by looking at a chart based on the ratio of walks to strikeouts over the years. The specific ratio illustrated below is BB%/SO%, where SO% is the strikeout ratio described above, and BB% is the ratio of walks to (total bases + walks). As it turns out,
BB% = (BB/SO)
SO% OR
The
change in this ratio shows a sharp, continuous decline from the late 40's
to the mid 60's, and it also shows that the ratio has become comparatively
stable since the mid 60's, with relatively small year to year fluctuations,
and strong similarity between the leagues. This is in stark contrast
to other annualized statistics, suggesting that the BB%/SO% ratio can be
considered a fundamental parameter, i.e., it is independent of factors
producing year to year fluctuations and inter-league variability.