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	Graphical Presentation of Batting Statistics for Major League Baseball Players and Teams Historic and Current Stats

  Further Discussion of the Significance of Walks

P. Adel, May 1999

As noted in the discussion on the derivation of the Offense Ratio, to embrace the Offense Ratio system one must accept that walks contribute significantly to offensive production. The following section illustrates the contribution of walks to team run production, and the next section extends the concept to individual players. Click HERE for the Offense Ratio Caveat.

To further illustrate and emphasize this assertion, consider the following:

Offense Ratio is proportional to Runs Per Game (see the discussion of the correlation of OR to RPG).
 

BB% describes the fraction (or percentage) of walks in the sum of total bases plus walks, and also the percentage of walks in the offense ratio.  The average BB% for the National League from 1920 to 1997 is 19%.  The average BB% for the American League from 1920 to 1997 is 21%.

Therefore the percentage of runs per games from walks averages 19% in the National League and 21% in the American League.

The following charts show the Offense Ratio for the years 1920 to 1997 in the National and American Leagues, and illustrate the portion of the Offense Ratio that is derived from walks.

Click on the image to see the full size chart.

Extension to Individual Player Performance

In the same way that the OR concept can be applied to individual players, so can the BB%.  Taking the average of the National and American League BB% averages for 1920 to 1997 (i.e. considering all Major League players together), we find that the average player derives 20% of Offense Ratio from walks (19.972% to be more precise).

The range of BB% for individual players is quite wide.  The active player with the highest BB% (2000 or more at bats) is Rickey Henderson, with 32%BB.  Shawon Dunston is at the bottom of the list of patient hitters with a 8%BB.

Of all players who have had 2000 or more at bats in the big leagues since 1900, Max Bishop tops the all time list with 41%BB.  Woody Jensen rounds out the list with an all time low of 6%BB.
 
 

The next question is: What accounts for the variation in BB% among individual players?  In my opinion there are three factors.  Patience, Respect, and Batting Order.

Generally speaking, patience is a factor for every player.  The more patience at the plate, the more walks, and vice versa.

Respect or batting order may be a factor for a player, but usually not both.  Opposing teams may pitch around (intentionally walk) a player near the top of the order because of the potential damage that player can do with the bat.  This is the Respect Factor.

Opposing teams may pitch around a player near the bottom of the order in order to pitch to a player less likely to get a hit (usually the pitcher).  This is the batting order factor, and it seems to be less important in recent years.  In the past, team rosters were very stable compared to teams of today.  Players stayed with the same team for most of or all of a career, and in many cases batted more or less in the same spot in the lineup year after year. In this way, those players that hit before the pitcher (in both the NL and the AL before the DH), or before any other poor hitter, 1) will see fewer pitches in the strikezone, and 2) have a slightly greater chance of being walked or walked intentionally.

The players that fall into the Respect Factor group are easily identified by a combination of high batting average and/or high slugging average (or TB/Hit).  A low strikeout ratio (SO% = SO/OUT) is not necessarily an indicator for the Respect Factor Group because so many of the great power hitters are, or were, free swingers.  This is particularly true of modern power hitters, as illustrated by the rise, since the 40's, in the average SO% (see the discussion in War Years and Evolution of the Game).  On the other hand, a low SO% is almost always a sign of a patient hitter, though patience alone does not make a fearsome hitter (consider about Larry Bowa, 0.260 career batting average, 0.509 career OR, had a 9%SO ratio, compared to the Major League average during his career of about 20%SO).

Players that fall into the batting order group are more difficult to identify through the numbers.  Players whose career OR benefited from batting order will have, in addition to high BB%, a high SO% and low batting average and slugging (or TB/Hit).  Dal Maxvill is representative of this group. With a career batting average of 0.217, 0.469 career OR, and an average strikeout ratio, Maxvill must have benefited from batting order to acheive a BB% of 29%.

The list of players that probably benefited from batting position was established by looking first at players with [BB%/OR + BB%/(TB/H)] > 0.5. From this list, players with BB%/(TB/H) > 0.2 are considered to have definitely benefited from batting order. Those that have BB%/(TB/H) < 0.2 need case by case evaluation. Many in the BB%/(TB/H) < 0.2 group have high side TB/H, which can account for the high BB%.

Pure power hitters (high TB/H) frequently have elevated BB% because they will be situationally walked (close game, men on base) even if their batting average or OR are not particularly high. Mickey Tettleton represents this group, with a 0.241 career batting average, and 31%BB. His pure power, 1.86 TB/H is among the highest of non-HOF players.

chart BB/OUT vs. TB/OUT

Lineup protection theoretically should have the reverse effect on walks. A team protects their premier hitter by following him in the order with another strong hitter. The opposing team will be inclined not to let the lead hitter reach base on a walk with another strong hitter on deck. The lead batter, in theory, will therefore get more pitches in the strike zone. A more in depth analysis of lineup protection and a method of calculating the increase in batting average or TB/H required to makeup for the offensive production lost by a given reduction in walks, is presented in Protection Factors (to be posted shortly).

Attach SO% chart
Standard deviation of BB%, qualify OR of Players with BB% more than several SDEV above average

Attach alternate OR charts
 
 

NEXT War Years: Evolution of the Modern Power Hitter

BACK to Accuracy: Correlation of OR to Runs Per Game

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